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Nova Newsletter
April 21, 2025
☕ Good morning. 1,576 words for you today - 8-minute read.
The Spotlight
1. Trump Warns Bombing If Iran Ceasefire Ends
President Donald Trump warned that “lots of bombs start going off” if the Iran ceasefire expires as scheduled.
Takeaways
Trump signals potential escalation if ceasefire lapses Tuesday.
U.S. delegation still plans peace talks in Islamabad, though Iran’s participation is uncertain.
Core demand remains no Iranian nuclear weapons.
Trump made the remarks in a PBS interview while negotiations continue under tight deadlines.
He said talks could proceed with or without Iran, emphasizing the U.S. position that Tehran must abandon nuclear ambitions.
Trump also defended envoy Jared Kushner, calling him a strong negotiator despite past business ties in the region.
Energy prices could drop quickly, Trump said, if a deal is reached and tensions ease.
The next 24 hours could determine whether diplomacy holds or conflict escalates sharply. Read More
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2. Gas Prices May Stay Above $3 Until 2027
Energy Secretary Chris Wright said U.S. gas prices may not fall below $3 per gallon until next year amid ongoing Iran conflict and energy disruptions.
Takeaways
Strait of Hormuz disruptions continue to choke global oil supply.
U.S. gas prices surged to about $4.04 per gallon, up from $2.90 pre-war.
Wright says prices have likely peaked, but relief depends on conflict resolution.
The Iran war has tightened global energy markets, with Tehran restricting traffic through a route carrying one-fifth of the world’s oil.
Prices briefly eased on ceasefire hopes, but renewed attacks on tankers added volatility.
Wright said a diplomatic resolution could quickly push prices lower, though timing remains uncertain.
Energy markets now hinge on whether tensions ease or escalate in the coming weeks. Read More
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3. US Strike On Suspected Drug Boat Kills 3
This image from video provided by U.S. South Command, shows a vessel accused of trafficking drugs in the eastern Pacific Ocean shortly before it was destroyed by the U.S. military, killing two and injuring one, on Jan. 23, 2026. (U.S. Southern Command via AP, File)
The U.S. military struck a suspected drug-trafficking vessel in the Caribbean Sea, killing three people as part of an ongoing anti-cartel campaign.
Takeaways
Strike is part of a broader campaign that has killed at least 181 people since September.
U.S. says vessels are tied to “narcoterrorism” but has provided limited public evidence.
Critics question legality and civilian risk of repeated military strikes.
The strike targeted a boat traveling along known smuggling routes, with the military releasing video of the explosion.
Operations have intensified recently, even as the U.S. remains engaged in the Iran conflict, signaling a dual-front security strategy.
Human rights groups and legal experts argue the strikes may constitute extrajudicial killings, citing lack of transparency and due process.
The campaign’s escalation is drawing growing scrutiny over its legality and long-term effectiveness. Read More
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Someone just spent $236,000,000 on a painting. Here’s why it matters for your wallet.
Late last year, a Klimt sold for the highest price ever paid for modern art at auction.
An outlier sure, but it wasn't a fluke. U.S. auction sales grew 23.1% in 2025. The $1-5mm segment even grew 40.8% YoY.
Now, the S&P, teetering on all time highs, just posted its worst quarter since 2022, oil was up 94% (briefly), and Moody's puts recession odds at 48.6%.
Each environment is unique, but after dot-com, post war and contemporary art grew about 24% annually for a decade. After 2008, about 11% for 12 years.
It’s also had near-zero correlation with the S&P 500 since ‘95.*
Now, Masterworks lets you invest in shares of artworks featuring legends like Banksy, Basquiat, and Picasso.
$1.3 billion invested across over 500 artworks.
28 sales to date.
Net annualized returns on sold works held 12 months+ like 14.6%, 17.6%, and 17.8%.
Shares can sell quickly, but my subscribers can skip the waitlist:
*Investing involves risk. Past performance is not indicative of future returns. See important Reg A disclosures at masterworks.com/cd.
Quick Headlines
Police work outside the scene of a mass shooting, Sunday, April 19, 2026, in Shreveport, La. (AP Photo/Gerald Herbert)
A gunman identified as Shamar Elkins killed eight children, including seven of his own, across two homes in Shreveport before dying in a police chase, leaving two women critically wounded in what authorities called the deadliest U.S. mass shooting in over two year. Read More
Kash Patel filed a $250 million defamation lawsuit against The Atlantic over a report alleging misconduct and excessive drinking, as the outlet calls the case meritless and prepares to defend its reporting in federal court. Read More
A U.S.-flagged cargo vessel, the Mariana, was found overturned near the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands after Typhoon Sinlaku, with six crew missing as the U.S. Coast Guard and international partners search more than 75,000 square nautical miles for survivors. Read More
An IDF soldier was seen striking a statue of Jesus in southern Lebanon during military operations, prompting condemnation from Benjamin Netanyahu and an IDF investigation as leaders call the act disgraceful amid ongoing Israel-Hezbollah tensions. Read More
A 44-year-old Los Angeles resident, Shamim Mafi, was arrested at Los Angeles International Airport on suspicion of helping broker Iranian weapons sales, including drones and ammunition worth millions, to Sudan’s military amid its ongoing civil war. Read More
After a 7.7 magnitude offshore earthquake near Iwate Prefecture triggered tsunami evacuations and waves up to 80 cm, Japan’s Meteorological Agency warned of a higher-than-normal risk of a magnitude 8.0+ aftershock within a week, recalling the 2011 disaster that killed over 18,000 people. Read More
Deep Dive
4. Trump Tariff Refunds Begin but Consumers Left Behind
The Trump administration has started refunding billions in struck-down tariffs, but most consumers who paid higher prices will see no direct benefit.
Takeaways
Courts ordered refunds of over $160 billion in tariffs, one of the largest repayment efforts in U.S. history.
Around 330,000 importers are eligible, with $127 billion already claimed through the new system.
Refunds will go to businesses, not shoppers, despite consumers bearing much of the cost through higher prices.
Some companies face class-action lawsuits demanding refunds be passed on to customers.
Officials signal consumers are unlikely to see payouts, raising fairness concerns.
The refunds stem from tariffs imposed under emergency powers that were later struck down by courts. A new federal portal is processing claims, with payments expected within 60 to 90 days, including interest.
But the money is flowing to importers, not households. While companies absorbed some costs, many passed tariffs along through price hikes, leaving consumers effectively taxed without recourse.
Legal pressure is building. Lawsuits targeting major firms, including retailers and logistics companies, argue that any refund windfall should be shared with customers. So far, only a few companies have signaled they may lower prices.
The broader economics complicate the picture. Businesses often did not fully pass on tariff costs and also faced secondary hits like debt, supply disruptions, and lost sales. That makes calculating consumer reimbursement difficult and unlikely.
Officials have been blunt. Trade and Treasury leaders suggest refunds may instead go to bonuses or balance sheets, not back into shoppers’ pockets.
The result is a rare reversal of a massive policy cost, with benefits captured upstream while the public absorbs the aftershock. Read More
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On Our Radar
5. Charges Expected Against D4vd In Teen Death Case
Prosecutors are expected to file charges against singer D4vd in the killing of 14-year-old Celeste Rivas Hernandez.
Takeaways
D4vd arrested and held without bail in connection to the homicide.
Victim’s body found in Tesla registered to the singer last fall.
Case hinges on DNA evidence and circumstantial links, not yet an indictment.
Authorities say the teen’s death was ruled a homicide, with a press conference scheduled by the Los Angeles County District Attorney and LAPD.
Legal battle will focus on whether D4vd remains in custody, with prosecutors weighing serious charges or no bail arguments.
Defense attorneys insist D4vd is innocent, saying evidence will show he was not responsible for the death.
The case is poised to test the strength of forensic evidence in a high-profile prosecution. Read More
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6. Ruby Rose Accuses Katy Perry Of 2010 Assault
Actor Ruby Rose alleges pop star Katy Perry sexually assaulted her in 2010, with police confirming an active investigation.
Takeaways
Victoria police investigating “historical sexual assault” in Melbourne nightclub.
Katy Perry denies allegations, calling claims “false and reckless.”
No statute of limitations in Victoria allows decades-old cases to proceed.
Police said detectives are probing an incident reported to have occurred at a licensed venue in Melbourne’s CBD, but declined further details.
Rose said she recently filed formal reports after years of silence, citing the lasting impact of trauma.
Perry’s representatives strongly rejected the claims, escalating a high-profile dispute as the case develops.
The investigation could test how historical allegations are handled in public and legal arenas. Read More
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8. 🎉 This day in history
Image: Geek3, CC BY-SA 3.0.
On This Day — April 21
Discovery of Electromagnetism, 1820 – Hans Christian Ørsted discovers electromagnetism by observing that an electric current can deflect a compass needle, launching the field of electromagnetism.
U.S. Declares War on Spain, 1898 – The U.S. Congress formally recognizes a state of war with Spain, escalating the Spanish American War and marking a turning point in American global influence.
Papal Transition, 2025 – Pope Francis dies after serving as leader of the Catholic Church since 2013 and is succeeded by Pope Leo XIV.
Life Hack of the day
🧂🥛 Add a Pinch of Salt to Water after Sweating Heavily
Want a simple way to recover after heavy sweating? Add a small pinch of salt to your water. This helps replace some of the sodium lost through sweat and can support electrolyte balance. It’s an easy trick to help your body rehydrate more effectively after intense activity.
That’s your morning brief. Now go show someone how smart you are. 🧠
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